Thursday, November 04, 2004

Always Darkest Before the Dawn

More and more we appear to be a deeply divided nation. Red vs. blue, Urban vs. rural. America first vs. international community. It's clear that things are heating up in the American pressure cooker but where is this increasing polarization going to lead? Is this the dark hour before a new dawn or are we just beginning to head into winter?

The following short thread took place on my sister's blog and is worth reposting here as it contains different views on the role of intelligent, progressive professionals in our society today.

fanw (fanw) wrote,@ 2004-11-03 11:41:00
Always Darkest Before the Dawn

We weren't around to see it, but I just had a fellow compare our times with those of the early sixties where McCarthyism and Vietnam led to a deeply divided nation. In his words

As someone else pointed out earlier, the bright side to a Bush victory is that he and his vision will be the only ones to blame when it all goes undeniably to hell. Look how bad things had to get in Vietnam before the country finally got rowdy enough to force the issue. We just aren't there yet. Are the transgressions of the moment any worse than those of forty years ago? Only in the sense that the current generation has forgotten that history.

The long and short of it? Hold on for a rough ride. It takes a lot to wake up the people, but the disasters to come may just lead into a few decades of invigorated social activism. It's going to be dark. The 60s were no picnic. There were assassinations and the missile crisis. Students and others got used to spending jail time for their protests. At a Berkely protest, the governor of California (yup, Reagan) closed off all the exits to the public square and tear-gassed the protestors. The 1968 Democratic Convention. Deep public disgust in the government. I'm not saying it's going to be easy, but we're going to come out with some real social change in the end. And all this will happen when we're in the prime of our lives, in our 40s and 50s, with the most power to affect change.

Hold on folks and bless you all.

(Anonymous) 2004-11-03 19:21
Seasons of History

Myfanwy,Your brother here. As you know, I've believed for a couple of years now that the economy is inching closer to a dramatic unraveling. It may not be fast enough to be termed a 'crash' but I believe we are headed for a long downward trend and I will be extremely surprised if it can be held off for four more years. To the educated, liberal intelligentsia this will naturally be attributed to the current administration. But the masses will be directed to seek blame elsewhere: terrorists (read Osama's latest transcript), Chinese or European competitors, foreign holders of US debt, etc. In reality it will have been much longer in the making than the Bush administration and will take more than one or two administrations to correct.

My readings in history, the psychology of masses, generational dynamics and long wave (Kondratieff) cycles in economics lead me to believe that this trend is undeniable. When you add to it the inevitability of Peak Oil we are looking at a half century of massive and at times unpleasant change -- the end of an empire and of a way of life. We will have to reinvent our current political and economic infrastructure to live in a world with hard boundaries to growth, something that is anathema to both the American and Capitalist view of the world.

The metaphor of seasonality is one that strikes deep chords with me. I am not a fatalist in the strictest sense of the word but I do believe we are born in different societal seasons. Different personalty types have different roles to play in these seasons. Right now the season in America is very late Fall after a gloriously long Summer and Indian Summer. I feel like the Democrats and Republicans are all looking back at summer and have different approaches of how to keep the tomato plants alive. The Republicans think we should set up heat lamps in the garden while the Democrats want to wrap all of the tomato cages in plastic wrap.

The real answer is to accept that Winter is coming. It is bigger than our technological (read political/economic) attempts to keep it at bay. The appropriate thing to do at this time of year is to prepare for Winter and plant the seeds that will come up next Spring. Of course, one needs to put up some canned goods (gold, silver, foreign work opportunities) to make it through the winter but sowing the seeds for the next generation is paramount.

What seeds can one sow?

  • live where you don't depend on a car
  • spend your time creating a community of friends, neighbors and families
  • develop skills in the eternal human arts: storytelling, theater, music, dance, art
  • build a network of people that doesn't depend on political organizing to get things done

To paraphrase Nader's concession speech today: "The Republicans and Democrats are looking backwards." An enjoyable life in the future will require something new. It is my very optimistic view of things that the cultural creatives among us will determine what that future looks like. The separate reality that we are creating for ourselves today will eventually be adopted by others when the current TV reality is finally recognized as bankrupt. This change will be painfully slow if your goal is to move the whole society. But you can surround yourself today with the reality you want and lead others to it simply by example. And I know you are already doing this. I just want you to find joy in the seeds you have already sown.

with love,

-- Jon

Re: seasons of history (Anonymous) 2004-11-03 23:58

This is both insightful and depressing, but I think you give good advice.

However, since with 7 billion people on the earth the onset of "winter" will be a true cataclysmic disaster, i would argue that every ounce of effort we make to soften the blow is well rewarded. Every day that we stretch the oil is another day for the development of alternatives, meaning ultimately fewer people will go without food. Every ounce of imperialist foreign policy we replace with generous policy is a few thousand people not converted unnecessarily or prematurely into enemies. Every dollar we go less into debt reduces the probability that the US will suffer a catastrophic pullout of foreign investment (like a run on the bank), or delays it until a tempered economic slowdown has more time to sink in and/or alternative economies have more time to develop. Tempered economic, food, or energy crises, and tempered religious zealotry, translate directly to reduced severity and number of wars if a fall comes.

So the fighting Dems among us (like myself) still have a role to play, I think, even if you are right. As you said, different types have different roles to play. But your advice is sound either way, and I will take it to heart.

Ev


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