The Growth Crisis Ahead (Part 1)

About once a century, after the generation that lived through the previous crisis has shed this mortal coil, Americans find themselves once again in troubled times. Many see a culture that has lost touch with its spiritual roots and retreat inward to family, community and faith based values. Others bemoan the decay of American ideals and the corruption of politics and business and vow a fight to set things right. Amid a growing sense of foreboding, there is increasing polarization in our society, increasing demonization of the other half of our body politic and increasing uncertainty about what America will be in the future. Welcome to 'The Unraveling'.

Awakenings and Crises

Much of my thinking about the social setting in the times ahead is influenced by the 1997 book The Fourth Turning by William Strauss & Neil Howe. In it they describe a cyclical pattern in Anglo-American history that is tied to the human lifespan. The cycle is characterized by different social moods that Strauss & Howe term 'Turnings' though I much prefer the 'seasons of history' metaphor:

The First Turning is a High —an upbeat era of strengthening institutions and weakening individualism, when a new civic order implants and the old values regime decays. [Spring: 1946-1964]

The Second Turning is an Awakening —a passionate era of spiritual upheaval, when the civic order comes under attack from a new values regime. [Summer: 1964-1984]

The Third Turning is an Unraveling —a downcast era of strengthening individualism and weakening institutions, when the old civic order decays and the new values regime implants. [Fall: 1984-2005?]

The Fourth Turning is a Crisis —a decisive era of secular upheaval, when the values regime propels the replacement of the old civic order with a new one. [Winter: 2005?-2026?]

According to their 1997 prophecy we should be on the cusp of winter, about to experience a "decisive era of secular upheaval". I could not agree more. It is impossible to read about the Hapsburg empire in the early 1900's, America in the late 1920's or Germany in the early 30's and not find eerie parallels. Clearly, something big is in the works. But what it will be is anyone's guess.

Strauss & Howe speak of a 'new values regime' that forms during an Awakening and finally displaces the old regime during the Crisis. The new values regime comes about as a result of inconsistencies and compromises that enabled the previous Crisis to be settled. As these inconsistencies come to a head a new Crisis unfolds. Thus the founding of the United States, by leaving the issue of slavery unresolved, had in it the seeds for the next Crisis. Following the winter of the Revolutionary War, a summer Awakening blossomed that focused public attention on the inconsistency of slavery in a nation where "all men are created equal". The abolitionist movement began during a time of religious fervor and social idealism in the 1820's and 30's that also marked the beginnings of American feminism and various utopian movements including the founding of the Mormon Church. As we can see, each Awakening provides plenty of grist for our analytical mill. The question is which issue will become paramount when another winter of Crisis rolls around.

After the Civil War, Laissez-faire capitalism seemed the only way to realize our Manifest Destiny, to develop and extend our Far West at a time of national exhaustion. Railroads were given huge grants of public lands while the federal government did little to stand in the way of monopolies and trusts. This was a period throughout the Western world of increasing industrialization and urbanization and was accompanied by a philosophical debate about the proper interaction between government and business. Social Darwinist theories that supported Laissez-fare were pitted against religious and socialist ideals of the General Welfare state. Another Awakening occurred in the U.S. during the Progressive Era of the late 1890's and 1900's with increased societal interest in everything from prohibition to revivalism, from feminism to trust busting to unionism.

In the mid 1920's it might have seemed that feminism and, through virgin birth, Prohibition were the defining issues of the time but the Great Crash and America's entry into WWII focused people's attention on more pressing matters. Over the course of 16 years of Crisis (1929-1945) our society rejected many of the hallmarks of Laissez-faire capitalism and adopted more and more of those of the general welfare state. We still retained many of the feminist ideals from the previous Awakening but crucified Prohibition as a troublemaker. From an economic point of view, the great change effected by the years of Crisis was evident in the novel concepts of Social Security, unemployment insurance, corporate pensions and Keynesian deficit spending.

Despite these changes, perhaps because of them, or perhaps completely indifferent to them, it was now the American Century and time to fulfill our national destiny. Our corporations were dominant; our technological prowess was unsurpassed and our version of free market democracy was the model for the rest of the world. We were the 'shining city on the hill' that the rest of the world looked up to. We could do no wrong.

But another Awakening was to come. The 60's was the name given to a two decade period when a new generation began to question authority. Rachel Carson attracted attention to environmental degradation with her 1962 publication of Silent Spring. Martin Luther King's 1963 I have a Dream speech railed once again at the racial inequalities still present in American society. Ralph Nader began his crusade against corporate dominance of our society with Unsafe at Any Speed in 1965. Youth abandoned the Boy Scout ethic of their parents to pursue a life of sex, drugs and Rock and Roll at Woodstock in 1969. Others went on to explore eastern religions or found a completely New Age spirituality. Our 'police action' in Viet Nam left a new generation thinking it was, indeed, possible for our nation to do wrong and that those in power should be distrusted. These were the important issues of that time and it is to these that we must look for the underlying inconsistencies in our society that must be resolved during the next Crisis.

Some, apparently including the current administration, foresee an external Crisis. They believe that we are on the threshold of a Clash of Civilizations between Islamic-Confucian states and the West. As stated in Samuel P. Huntington's seminal article in 1993:

It is my hypothesis that the fundamental source of conflict in this new world will not be primarily ideological or primarily economic. The great divisions among humankind and the dominating source of conflict will be cultural.

There is no doubting the increasing currency of the Islam vs. the West paradigm in light of current events or that the Oil Wars in the Middle East will continue for some time. But it is clear that the current war in Iraq is a politically polarizing issue within the West, not a unifying one. There is little if any connection between Islamic or Chinese ascendancy in the new millennium and the values regime that was formed during the 60's. On the contrary, if 60's values were to prevail today we would find ourselves 'making love, not war' in the Middle East. It is also either insincere or mind numbingly imperceptive to suggest that the fundamental source of the conflict in Iraq is not economic. The dots connecting Iraq's oil reserves and the U.S.-British decision to depose Saddam are both large and well numbered.

No. A triumph over terrorism, Islamic or otherwise, would not be enough to get us through the next period of Crisis. Something much more fundamental must change in America that deals with the inconsistencies and compromises woven into the fabric of our society at the close of World War II. If we can understand what these inconsistencies are and how they must be resolved we, as individuals, are in a much better position to make it through the next Crisis relatively unscathed, ready to take advantage of another American Spring that is a mere two decades away.