PLENTY Magazine

For those who fret that America is going in the wrong direction it's important to remember that 'America' is a multi-facted society with many concurrent realities. Just look at any well stocked magazine shop to get a sense of the range of worlds you can be part of. Every month new magazines appear that cater to emerging tastes. A new magazine named PLENTY appeared on shelves November 16 and harbors the same optimism in the face of adversity that I do.

With a cover story titled "THE END OF OIL?" they are well aware of the problems we face but they come prepared with one of my favorite quotes:

"Never doubt that a small group of committed people can change the world. Indeed, it is the only thing that ever has."
— Margaret Mead

If this magazine is any sign — and I'm sure they did their market analysis — there is still intelligent life in this nation. I applaud their ground-up approach to change. It really is up to each and every one of us to build a better future through personal action as they make clear in their mission statement:

The publication in 1962 of Rachel Carson’s Silent Spring awakened a nation to the environmental degradation in its own backyard. But for too long the environment seemed something out of our own personal control. That is quickly changing. For, today, green options abound. These not only are pleasing to the eye but also require no sacrifice of comfort or design. You simply have to hunt a little harder to find them (and in time these options should be even more readily available). There are hybrid cars that get unprecedented gas mileage, but still have most of the power we’ve come to enjoy and expect. Tasty organic foods, designer clothes, and elegant furniture made from sustainably harvested natural resources are available at competitive prices. There are even ways to build a beautiful house from ecologically friendly materials.

Partly because of unprecedented consumer demand, but also because of the inherent logic, businesses are rethinking their core processes. They are not simply trying to market themselves as green, but more and more forward-looking companies are becoming green by reinventing how they make things and by closely examining the resources they use.

All of these changes bode well for the future, but it’s still all too evident that the world’s key natural resources are being depleted at an alarming rate. We need to look to alternatives if humanity is to thrive and prosper. We have, for instance, an inexhaustible supply of solar and wind energy, and hydrogen fuel cells stand out as promising replacements for our oil-based economy. If we, as individuals and as a society, make the right choices, we can still have a world of PLENTY.

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Sharp decrease in Syria's oil exports expected

For archival purposes, I've copied the original article at the bottom.

It's true that Syria's current export of 250,000 barrels of oil a day is a drop in the global oil bucket but it doesn't bode well for Middle East oil production in the future. The folks at peakoil.net are doing their best to alert everyone to the rapidly aproaching Hubbert Peak in global oil production and Syria is just one more country that has passed its national peak in oil production — the latest canary in the mine to go belly up. (Over half of our original menagerie has now passed on.)

Unless Syria embarks upon a massive conservation program their national consumption will match production within the next 20 years. Besides income from oil exports, Syria's economy depends heavily on agriculture from largely exhausted fields and foreign aid from it's rich Arab neighbors. Population growth for this nation of 17 million is estimated at 2.5% (2002 estimates). The economic prospects for Syria do not look good as Peak Oil approaches.

For more information on Syria I recommend the Arab World page on Syria.

Sharp decrease in Syria's oil exports expected

Syria, Economics,11/17/2004

Trade sources expected yesterday that Syria's exports of light crude oil for its contractors will be sharply decreased with the beginning of 2005 as a result of production recession from old oil fields.

The Syrian oil marketing company has been discussing with clients amounts that will be dedicated to them. The sources say that the volume of the light Syrian crude oil exports will be decreased at rate of 30% in comparison with the figures of this year.

One buyer said that: they explained they will not be able to export huge amounts of the light Syrian crude oil because of problems in production. They say to the buyers that they can get the light Syrian crude oil only if they buy the heavy one ( from al-Sweideh oil fields.)

Traders said that Syria intends to export between 85- 90 shipment of light crude oil and between 45 to 50 shipment of heavy oil in the current year but this rate might be changed in next year to 55 shipment. Another trader said: we expect to a large extent that many of the buyers will loose their contracts if they are not willing to buy al-Sweideh crude oil.

Large number of buyers are expected [not?] to buy al-Sweideh crude oil because its is very heavy and is rich in Bitomine and of low density. Its intensity of 24.5 grade at the standards of the American oil institute, and many European refineries can not treat it. Syrian crude oil production receded gradually in recent years down to 500,000 barrels every day in 2004 for the first time in comparison with 600,000 barrels in 1996. Syria exports some 250,000 barrels daily and some 200,000 remain for local consumption refined in the two local Syrian refineries in Banias and Homs. Oil exports represent more than half of Syria's income of hard currency.

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The Growth Crisis Ahead (Part 1)

About once a century, after the generation that lived through the previous crisis has shed this mortal coil, Americans find themselves once again in troubled times. Many see a culture that has lost touch with its spiritual roots and retreat inward to family, community and faith based values. Others bemoan the decay of American ideals and the corruption of politics and business and vow a fight to set things right. Amid a growing sense of foreboding, there is increasing polarization in our society, increasing demonization of the other half of our body politic and increasing uncertainty about what America will be in the future. Welcome to 'The Unraveling'.

Awakenings and Crises

Much of my thinking about the social setting in the times ahead is influenced by the 1997 book The Fourth Turning by William Strauss & Neil Howe. In it they describe a cyclical pattern in Anglo-American history that is tied to the human lifespan. The cycle is characterized by different social moods that Strauss & Howe term 'Turnings' though I much prefer the 'seasons of history' metaphor:

The First Turning is a High —an upbeat era of strengthening institutions and weakening individualism, when a new civic order implants and the old values regime decays. [Spring: 1946-1964]

The Second Turning is an Awakening —a passionate era of spiritual upheaval, when the civic order comes under attack from a new values regime. [Summer: 1964-1984]

The Third Turning is an Unraveling —a downcast era of strengthening individualism and weakening institutions, when the old civic order decays and the new values regime implants. [Fall: 1984-2005?]

The Fourth Turning is a Crisis —a decisive era of secular upheaval, when the values regime propels the replacement of the old civic order with a new one. [Winter: 2005?-2026?]

According to their 1997 prophecy we should be on the cusp of winter, about to experience a "decisive era of secular upheaval". I could not agree more. It is impossible to read about the Hapsburg empire in the early 1900's, America in the late 1920's or Germany in the early 30's and not find eerie parallels. Clearly, something big is in the works. But what it will be is anyone's guess.

Strauss & Howe speak of a 'new values regime' that forms during an Awakening and finally displaces the old regime during the Crisis. The new values regime comes about as a result of inconsistencies and compromises that enabled the previous Crisis to be settled. As these inconsistencies come to a head a new Crisis unfolds. Thus the founding of the United States, by leaving the issue of slavery unresolved, had in it the seeds for the next Crisis. Following the winter of the Revolutionary War, a summer Awakening blossomed that focused public attention on the inconsistency of slavery in a nation where "all men are created equal". The abolitionist movement began during a time of religious fervor and social idealism in the 1820's and 30's that also marked the beginnings of American feminism and various utopian movements including the founding of the Mormon Church. As we can see, each Awakening provides plenty of grist for our analytical mill. The question is which issue will become paramount when another winter of Crisis rolls around.

After the Civil War, Laissez-faire capitalism seemed the only way to realize our Manifest Destiny, to develop and extend our Far West at a time of national exhaustion. Railroads were given huge grants of public lands while the federal government did little to stand in the way of monopolies and trusts. This was a period throughout the Western world of increasing industrialization and urbanization and was accompanied by a philosophical debate about the proper interaction between government and business. Social Darwinist theories that supported Laissez-fare were pitted against religious and socialist ideals of the General Welfare state. Another Awakening occurred in the U.S. during the Progressive Era of the late 1890's and 1900's with increased societal interest in everything from prohibition to revivalism, from feminism to trust busting to unionism.

In the mid 1920's it might have seemed that feminism and, through virgin birth, Prohibition were the defining issues of the time but the Great Crash and America's entry into WWII focused people's attention on more pressing matters. Over the course of 16 years of Crisis (1929-1945) our society rejected many of the hallmarks of Laissez-faire capitalism and adopted more and more of those of the general welfare state. We still retained many of the feminist ideals from the previous Awakening but crucified Prohibition as a troublemaker. From an economic point of view, the great change effected by the years of Crisis was evident in the novel concepts of Social Security, unemployment insurance, corporate pensions and Keynesian deficit spending.

Despite these changes, perhaps because of them, or perhaps completely indifferent to them, it was now the American Century and time to fulfill our national destiny. Our corporations were dominant; our technological prowess was unsurpassed and our version of free market democracy was the model for the rest of the world. We were the 'shining city on the hill' that the rest of the world looked up to. We could do no wrong.

But another Awakening was to come. The 60's was the name given to a two decade period when a new generation began to question authority. Rachel Carson attracted attention to environmental degradation with her 1962 publication of Silent Spring. Martin Luther King's 1963 I have a Dream speech railed once again at the racial inequalities still present in American society. Ralph Nader began his crusade against corporate dominance of our society with Unsafe at Any Speed in 1965. Youth abandoned the Boy Scout ethic of their parents to pursue a life of sex, drugs and Rock and Roll at Woodstock in 1969. Others went on to explore eastern religions or found a completely New Age spirituality. Our 'police action' in Viet Nam left a new generation thinking it was, indeed, possible for our nation to do wrong and that those in power should be distrusted. These were the important issues of that time and it is to these that we must look for the underlying inconsistencies in our society that must be resolved during the next Crisis.

Some, apparently including the current administration, foresee an external Crisis. They believe that we are on the threshold of a Clash of Civilizations between Islamic-Confucian states and the West. As stated in Samuel P. Huntington's seminal article in 1993:

It is my hypothesis that the fundamental source of conflict in this new world will not be primarily ideological or primarily economic. The great divisions among humankind and the dominating source of conflict will be cultural.

There is no doubting the increasing currency of the Islam vs. the West paradigm in light of current events or that the Oil Wars in the Middle East will continue for some time. But it is clear that the current war in Iraq is a politically polarizing issue within the West, not a unifying one. There is little if any connection between Islamic or Chinese ascendancy in the new millennium and the values regime that was formed during the 60's. On the contrary, if 60's values were to prevail today we would find ourselves 'making love, not war' in the Middle East. It is also either insincere or mind numbingly imperceptive to suggest that the fundamental source of the conflict in Iraq is not economic. The dots connecting Iraq's oil reserves and the U.S.-British decision to depose Saddam are both large and well numbered.

No. A triumph over terrorism, Islamic or otherwise, would not be enough to get us through the next period of Crisis. Something much more fundamental must change in America that deals with the inconsistencies and compromises woven into the fabric of our society at the close of World War II. If we can understand what these inconsistencies are and how they must be resolved we, as individuals, are in a much better position to make it through the next Crisis relatively unscathed, ready to take advantage of another American Spring that is a mere two decades away.

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The Austrian Quiz

No, this not a compilation of Schwarzenegger trivia. The smart folks at the Ludwig von Mises Institute have put together a 25 question quiz to test your knowledge of the Austrian School economic framework. Whether or not you agree with the Austrian answers, the questions are useful starting points for anyone trying to understand the interplay between government, economics and society. But be warned... This quiz is not for intellectual girlie men!

Each question in the quiz is followed by an Austrian School answer, a Chicago School answer, a Keynesian-Neoclassical School answer, and a Socialist answer -- all broadly defined. It is these broad definitions and the fundamental questions themselves that provide ample fodder for thoughtful individuals. As an example, here is the first question and the four multiple-choice answers:

1. What is the correct economic status of private property?

1) Property is a naturally arising relationship between human beings and material things. Property and enforceable property rights make possible economic calculation, a wider and more productive division of labor, and therefore increasing levels of prosperity. Indeed, civilization itself is inconceivable in the absence of private property. Any encroachment on property results in loss of freedom and prosperity.

b) Property is at the heart of most serious inequalities and oppressions in modern civilization. Only by regulation, transfer payments, redistribution of property, and common ownership can society arrive at fairness, justice, and human dignity for all.

c) Property is an important component of our social system but its status as a "right" is contingent. It must be subject to regulation and modification for the general good. The state must intervene to prevent abuses of economic power, even at the cost of reducing traditional prerogatives of owners.

d) Property is central to prosperity and economic growth. Accordingly, it is of the utmost importance that the state, or more abstractly the law, maintain and modify the bundle of property rights in such a way as to allocate transactions costs in such a way as to promote maximum growth and economic efficiency. Property does not arise naturally, but is the end product of the legal system.

Thought provoking... In this first question, the progressive liberal social values of my youth still hold sway over me. But in other questions, these are brought face-to-face with my increasing acceptance of more Austrian attitudes toward the role of government in managing the economy. The quiz as a whole is truly exceptional. The questions cut to the heart of the role of government in society and are thus important questions to address for those of us who see that a remaking of American society in the coming decades is inevitable.

For the impatient, the 25 questions of the quiz are listed here. Future postings will address them one at a time.

1. What is the correct economic status of private property?
2. What is the proper method to conduct research in economic science?
3. What is the reason for the interest rate, and should the rate be regulated?
4. What is the economic impact of saving?
5. What is the source of economic value?
6. What is money and how does it originate?
7. What causes the business cycle?
8. What is the right anti-recession policy?
9. How viable is socialism?
10. What is the proper size and scope of government?
11. Who should regulate consumer products and how?
12. What are wages?
13. What causes economic growth?
14. What is your view of economics and the environment?
15. What do taxes fund?
16. What caused the Great Depression and how effective was the New Deal?
17. Do markets create and sustain monopolies and what should be done about it?
18. What is the role of equality and inequality?
19. What is your view of free trade and globalization?
20. What is the function of the stock market?
21. What are labor unions for?
22. What are the economic implications of national defense?
23. What about goods like education and roads?
24. What are the economic implications of warfare?
25. Who serves society best?

Good questions all. I wonder how Arnie would answer?

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Generational Dynamics

It's a wonderful thing to know that you're not alone.

A prophet in his own land may never be understood but when he attends the International Conference on Prophesy he knows that his will no longer be a voice in the wilderness. Surrounded by peers who share his approach and world view, he can exchange ideas and divinations without going through the infinitely slow and painful process of getting others to accept basic axioms. Instead, the assembled focus on development and refinement of their specific fields of augury.

Googling on "generational dynamics" this morning, I bumped into John J. Xenakis' site: Generational Dynamics. A programmer, parent and MIT grad, Xenakis came to this field of study the same way I did -- through reading the 1997 book The Fourth Turning, an American Prophecy, by William Strauss and Neil Howe. Xenakis has taken the basic premise from their book and applied it to a larger and longer swath of history in his on on-line book.

There is so little accessible material written on generational dynamics that I was thrilled to find his site. His focus, however is very much on the military aspect of cultural changes while mine is rooted in small scale community. I am not a little disturbed, for example, by the following advice in Chapter 11:

Consider joining the armed forces or taking a defense-related
job. Patriotism isn't the only reason. An increasingly large portion of the nation's jobs will be defense-related, and this may be the best way to find a job.

Still, his analysis of the social forces that drive historical events is very compelling. As I have found in various, generally Austrian school economic sites, it is a great feeling to attend the conference and be surrounded by others who approach the problem with the same tools I do. Now I just have to find the focus group within the conference that shares my social values.

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Always Darkest Before the Dawn

More and more we appear to be a deeply divided nation. Red vs. blue, Urban vs. rural. America first vs. international community. It's clear that things are heating up in the American pressure cooker but where is this increasing polarization going to lead? Is this the dark hour before a new dawn or are we just beginning to head into winter?

The following short thread took place on my sister's blog and is worth reposting here as it contains different views on the role of intelligent, progressive professionals in our society today.

fanw (fanw) wrote,@ 2004-11-03 11:41:00
Always Darkest Before the Dawn

We weren't around to see it, but I just had a fellow compare our times with those of the early sixties where McCarthyism and Vietnam led to a deeply divided nation. In his words

As someone else pointed out earlier, the bright side to a Bush victory is that he and his vision will be the only ones to blame when it all goes undeniably to hell. Look how bad things had to get in Vietnam before the country finally got rowdy enough to force the issue. We just aren't there yet. Are the transgressions of the moment any worse than those of forty years ago? Only in the sense that the current generation has forgotten that history.

The long and short of it? Hold on for a rough ride. It takes a lot to wake up the people, but the disasters to come may just lead into a few decades of invigorated social activism. It's going to be dark. The 60s were no picnic. There were assassinations and the missile crisis. Students and others got used to spending jail time for their protests. At a Berkely protest, the governor of California (yup, Reagan) closed off all the exits to the public square and tear-gassed the protestors. The 1968 Democratic Convention. Deep public disgust in the government. I'm not saying it's going to be easy, but we're going to come out with some real social change in the end. And all this will happen when we're in the prime of our lives, in our 40s and 50s, with the most power to affect change.

Hold on folks and bless you all.

(Anonymous) 2004-11-03 19:21
Seasons of History

Myfanwy,Your brother here. As you know, I've believed for a couple of years now that the economy is inching closer to a dramatic unraveling. It may not be fast enough to be termed a 'crash' but I believe we are headed for a long downward trend and I will be extremely surprised if it can be held off for four more years. To the educated, liberal intelligentsia this will naturally be attributed to the current administration. But the masses will be directed to seek blame elsewhere: terrorists (read Osama's latest transcript), Chinese or European competitors, foreign holders of US debt, etc. In reality it will have been much longer in the making than the Bush administration and will take more than one or two administrations to correct.

My readings in history, the psychology of masses, generational dynamics and long wave (Kondratieff) cycles in economics lead me to believe that this trend is undeniable. When you add to it the inevitability of Peak Oil we are looking at a half century of massive and at times unpleasant change -- the end of an empire and of a way of life. We will have to reinvent our current political and economic infrastructure to live in a world with hard boundaries to growth, something that is anathema to both the American and Capitalist view of the world.

The metaphor of seasonality is one that strikes deep chords with me. I am not a fatalist in the strictest sense of the word but I do believe we are born in different societal seasons. Different personalty types have different roles to play in these seasons. Right now the season in America is very late Fall after a gloriously long Summer and Indian Summer. I feel like the Democrats and Republicans are all looking back at summer and have different approaches of how to keep the tomato plants alive. The Republicans think we should set up heat lamps in the garden while the Democrats want to wrap all of the tomato cages in plastic wrap.

The real answer is to accept that Winter is coming. It is bigger than our technological (read political/economic) attempts to keep it at bay. The appropriate thing to do at this time of year is to prepare for Winter and plant the seeds that will come up next Spring. Of course, one needs to put up some canned goods (gold, silver, foreign work opportunities) to make it through the winter but sowing the seeds for the next generation is paramount.

What seeds can one sow?

• live where you don't depend on a car
• spend your time creating a community of friends, neighbors and families
• develop skills in the eternal human arts: storytelling, theater, music, dance, art
• build a network of people that doesn't depend on political organizing to get things done

To paraphrase Nader's concession speech today: "The Republicans and Democrats are looking backwards." An enjoyable life in the future will require something new. It is my very optimistic view of things that the cultural creatives among us will determine what that future looks like. The separate reality that we are creating for ourselves today will eventually be adopted by others when the current TV reality is finally recognized as bankrupt. This change will be painfully slow if your goal is to move the whole society. But you can surround yourself today with the reality you want and lead others to it simply by example. And I know you are already doing this. I just want you to find joy in the seeds you have already sown.

with love,

-- Jon

Re: seasons of history (Anonymous) 2004-11-03 23:58

This is both insightful and depressing, but I think you give good advice.

However, since with 7 billion people on the earth the onset of "winter" will be a true cataclysmic disaster, i would argue that every ounce of effort we make to soften the blow is well rewarded. Every day that we stretch the oil is another day for the development of alternatives, meaning ultimately fewer people will go without food. Every ounce of imperialist foreign policy we replace with generous policy is a few thousand people not converted unnecessarily or prematurely into enemies. Every dollar we go less into debt reduces the probability that the US will suffer a catastrophic pullout of foreign investment (like a run on the bank), or delays it until a tempered economic slowdown has more time to sink in and/or alternative economies have more time to develop. Tempered economic, food, or energy crises, and tempered religious zealotry, translate directly to reduced severity and number of wars if a fall comes.

So the fighting Dems among us (like myself) still have a role to play, I think, even if you are right. As you said, different types have different roles to play. But your advice is sound either way, and I will take it to heart.

Ev

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Osama is very smart.

Whatever else you may have to say about Osama Bin Laden, there is no questioning that he possesses a keen intellect. The full transcript of his election week video displays an understanding of deep trends in America that our politicians never mention.

[Disclaimer -- Although I can respect the intelligence of any individual I most certainly despise those who resort to fear mongering and violence. I say 'Yes!' to Ghandi and MLK and 'No!' to Bin Laden and any others applying those tactics.]

The following is copied from Tech Central Station. I keep a verbatim copy here as a guaranteed permanent link as. None of the original transcript has been deleted or altered. My take on this document is given in the comments to this post.

---

The Al Jazeera Arabic television station yesterday released a more-complete transcript of the Osama bin Laden tape the station obtained and aired on October 29. This longer transcript, obtained from the U.S. government's Foreign Information Broadcast Service and included below, is notable for several things.

(I've purposefully removed these so as not to bias anyone's first time reading of this document. Various 'notable things' will be discussed in the comments to this post.)

[Al-Jazirah Net Headline: "Full English transcript of Usama bin Ladin's speech in a videotape sent to Aljazeera. In the interests of authenticity the transcript, which appeared as subtitles at the foot of the screen, has been left unedited."]

[FBIS Transcribed Text]

Praise be to Allah who created the creation for his worship and commanded them to be just and permitted the wronged one to retaliate against the oppressor in kind. To proceed: Peace be upon he who follows the guidance: People of America this talk of mine is for you and concerns the ideal way to prevent another Manhattan, and deals with the war and its causes and results.

Before I begin, I say to you that security is an indispensable pillar of human life and that free men do not forfeit their security, contrary to Bush's claim that we hate freedom. If so, then let him explain to us why we don't strike for example -- Sweden? And we know that freedom-haters don't possess defiant spirits like those of the 19 -- may Allah have mercy on them.

No, we fight because we are free men who don't sleep under oppression. We want to restore freedom to our nation, just as you lay waste to our nation. So shall we lay waste to yours.

No-one except a dumb thief plays with the security of others and then makes himself believe he will be secure. Whereas thinking people, when disaster strikes, make it their priority to look for its causes, in order to prevent it happening again.

But I am amazed at you. Even though we are in the fourth year after the events of September 11th, Bush is still engaged in distortion, deception and hiding from you the real causes. And thus, the reasons are still there for a repeat of what occurred.

So I shall talk to you about the story behind those events and shall tell you truthfully about the moments in which the decision was taken, for you to consider.

I say to you, Allah knows that it had never occurred to us to strike the towers. But after it became unbearable and we witnessed the oppression and tyranny of the American/Israeli coalition against our people in Palestine and Lebanon, it came to my mind.

The events that affected my soul in a direct way started in 1982 when America permitted the Israelis to invade Lebanon and the American Sixth Fleet helped them in that. This bombardment began and many were killed and injured and others were terrorized and displaced.

I couldn't forget those moving scenes, blood and severed limbs, women and children sprawled everywhere. Houses destroyed along with their occupants and high rises demolished over their residents, rockets raining down on our home without mercy.

The situation was like a crocodile meeting a helpless child, powerless except for his screams. Does the crocodile understand a conversation that doesn't include a weapon? And the whole world saw and heard but it didn't respond.

In those difficult moments many hard-to-describe ideas bubbled in my soul, but in the end they produced an intense feeling of rejection of tyranny, and gave birth to a strong resolve to punish the oppressors.

And as I looked at those demolished towers in Lebanon, it entered my mind that we should punish the oppressor in kind and that we should destroy towers in America in order that they taste some of what we tasted and so that they be deterred from killing our women and children.

And that day, it was confirmed to me that oppression and the intentional killing of innocent women and children is a deliberate American policy. Destruction is freedom and democracy, while resistance is terrorism and intolerance.

This means the oppressing and embargoing to death of millions as Bush Sr. did in Iraq in the greatest mass slaughter of children mankind has ever known, and it means the throwing of millions of pounds of bombs and explosives at millions of children -- also in Iraq -- as Bush Jr. Did, in order to remove an old agent and replace him with a new puppet to assist in the pilfering of Iraq's oil and other outrages.

So with these images and their like as their background, the events of September 11th came as a reply to those great wrongs, should a man be blamed for defending his sanctuary?

Is defending oneself and punishing the aggressor in kind, objectionable terrorism? If it is such, then it is unavoidable for us.

This is the message which I sought to communicate to you in word and deed, repeatedly, for years before September 11th.

And you can read this, if you wish, in my interview with Scott in Time Magazine in 1996, or with Peter Arnett on CNN in 1997, or my meeting with John Weiner in 1998.

You can observe it practically, if you wish, in Kenya and Tanzania and in Aden. And you can read it in my interview with Abdul Bari Atwan, as well as my interviews with Robert Fisk.

The latter is one of your compatriots and co-religionists and I consider him to be neutral. So are the pretenders of freedom at The White House and the channels controlled by them able to run an interview with him? So that he may relay to the American people what he has understood from us to be the reasons for our fight against you? If you were to avoid these reasons, you will have taken the correct path that will lead America to the security that it was in before September 11th. This concerned the causes of the war.

As for it's results, they have been, by the grace of Allah, positive and enormous, and have, by all standards, exceeded all expectations. This is due to many factors, chief amongst them, that we have found it difficult to deal with the Bush administration in light of the resemblance it bears to the regimes in our countries, half of which are ruled by the military and the other half which are ruled by the sons of kings and presidents.

Our experience with them is lengthy, and both types are replete with those who are characterized by pride, arrogance, greed and misappropriation of wealth. This resemblance began after the visits of Bush Sr. to the region.

At a time when some of our compatriots were dazzled by America and hoping that these visits would have an effect on our countries, all of a sudden he was affected by those monarchies and military regimes, and became envious of their remaining decades in their positions, to embezzle the public wealth of the nation without supervision or accounting.

So he took dictatorship and suppression of freedoms to his son and they named it the Patriot Act, under the pretense of fighting terrorism. In addition, Bush sanctioned the installing of sons as state governors, and didn't forget to import expertise in election fraud from the region's presidents to Florida to be made use of in moments of difficulty.

All that we have mentioned has made it easy for us to provoke and bait this administration. All that we have to do is to send two Mujahideen to the furthest point East to raise a piece of cloth on which is written al-Qaida, in order to make the generals race there to cause America to suffer human, economic, and political losses without their achieving for it anything of note other than some benefits for their private companies.

This is in addition to our having experience in using guerrilla warfare and the war of attrition to fight tyrannical superpowers, as we, alongside the Mujahideen, bled Russia for ten years, until it went bankrupt and was forced to withdraw in defeat.

All Praise is due to Allah.

So we are continuing this policy in bleeding America to the point of bankruptcy. Allah willing, and nothing is too great for Allah.

That being said, those who say that al-Qaida has won against the administration in the White House or that the administration has lost in this war have not been precise, because when one scrutinizes the results, one cannot say that al-Qaida is the sole factor in achieving those spectacular gains.

Rather, the policy of the White House that demands the opening of war fronts to keep busy their various corporations -- whether they be working in the field of arms or oil or reconstruction -- has helped al-Qaida to achieve these enormous results.

And so it has appeared to some analysts and diplomats that the White House and us are playing as one team towards the economic goals of the United States, even if the intentions differ.

And it was to these sorts of notions and their like that the British diplomat and others were referring in their lectures at the Royal Institute of International Affairs. (When they pointed out that) for example, al-Qaida spent $500 000 on the event, while America, in the incident and its aftermath, lost -- according to the lowest estimate -- more than 500 billion dollars.

Meaning that every dollar of al-Qaida defeated a million dollars by the permission of Allah, besides the loss of a huge number of jobs.

As for the size of the economic deficit, it has reached record astronomical numbers estimated to total more than a trillion dollars.

And even more dangerous and bitter for America is that the Mujahideen recently forced Bush to resort to emergency funds to continue the fight in Afghanistan and Iraq, which is evidence of the success of the bleed-until-bankruptcy plan -- with Allah's permission.

It is true that this shows that al-Qaida has gained, but on the other hand, it shows that the Bush administration has also gained, something of which anyone who looks at the size of the contracts acquired by the shady Bush administration-linked mega-corporations, like Haliburton and its kind, will be convinced. And it all shows that the real loser is...you.

It is the American people and their economy. And for the record, we had agreed with the Commander-General Muhammad Ataa, Allah have mercy on him, that all the operations should be carried out within twenty minutes, before Bush and his administration notice.

It never occurred to us that the commander-in-chief of the American armed forces would abandon 50 000 of his citizens in the twin towers to face those great horrors alone, the time when they most needed him. But because it seemed to him that occupying himself by talking to the little girl about the goat and its butting was more important than occupying himself with the planes and their butting of the skyscrapers. We were given three times the period required to execute the operations -- All Praise is Due to Allah.

And it's no secret to you that the thinkers and perceptive ones from among the Americans warned Bush before the war and told him, "All that you want for securing America and removing the weapons of mass destruction -- assuming they exist -- is available to you, and the nations of the world are with you in the inspections, and it is in the interest of America that it not be thrust into an unjustified war with an unknown outcome."

But the darkness of the black gold blurred his vision and insight, and he gave priority to private interests over the public interests of America.

So the war went ahead, the death toll rose, the American economy bled, and Bush became embroiled in the swamps of Iraq that threaten his future. He fits the saying, "Like the naughty she-goat who used her hoof to dig up a knife from under the earth" So I say to you, over 15 000 of our people have been killed and tens of thousands injured, while more than a thousand of you have been killed and more than 10 000 injured. And Bush's hands are stained with the blood of all those killed from both sides, all for the sake of oil and keeping their private companies in business.

Be aware that it is the nation who punishes the weak man when he causes the killing of one of its citizens for money, while letting the powerful one get off, when he causes the killing of more than 1000 of its sons, also for money.

And the same goes for your allies in Palestine. They terrorize the women and children, and kill and capture the men as they lie sleeping with their families on the mattresses, that you may recall that for every action, there is a reaction.

Finally, it behooves you to reflect on the last wills and testaments of the thousands who left you on the 11th as they gestured in despair. They are important testaments, which should be studied and researched.

Among the most important of what I read in them was some prose in their gestures before the collapse, where they say, "How mistaken we were to have allowed the White House to implement its aggressive foreign policies against the weak without supervision." It is as if they were telling you, the people of America, "Hold to account those who have caused us to be killed, and happy is he who learns from others' mistakes," And among that which I read in their gestures is a verse of poetry, "Injustice chases its people, and how unhealthy the bed of tyranny."

As has been said, "An ounce of prevention is better than a pound of cure."

And know that, "It is better to return to the truth than persist in error." And that the wise man doesn't squander his security, wealth and children for the sake of the liar in the White House.

In conclusion, I tell you in truth, that your security is not in the hands of Kerry, nor Bush, nor al-Qaida.

No.

Your security is in your own hands. And every state that doesn't play with our security has automatically guaranteed its own security.

And Allah is our Guardian and Helper, while you have no Guardian or Helper. All Peace be Upon he who follows the Guidance.

[Description of Source: Doha Al-Jazirah Net WWW-Text in English -- Internet site of Al-Jazirah Satellite Channel Television, an independent television station financed by the Qatari Government; root URL on filing date: http://english.aljazeera.net]

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